Iran’s threatened strikes on Gulf refineries could fundamentally reorder global energy supply, analysts warned on Wednesday, after the Revolutionary Guards announced imminent attacks against facilities in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar following an Israeli strike on the South Pars gasfield. Specific sites were named and evacuation orders issued. Oil prices surged toward $110 a barrel as the potential reordering of global energy supply sent markets into a state of acute anxiety.
South Pars, the world’s largest natural gas reserve, is shared between Iran and Qatar. The Israeli strike — reportedly with US authorization — was the first direct attack on Iranian fossil fuel production in the conflict. Both countries had previously avoided this move, but crossing it triggered Iran’s most specific and credible retaliatory threat of the war — one with the potential to reorder global energy supply in ways that would be felt for years.
Threatened sites listed by Iran’s state media included Saudi Arabia’s Samref refinery and Jubail complex, the UAE’s al-Hosn gasfield, and Qatar’s Mesaieed and Ras Laffan facilities. All personnel were told to evacuate without delay. Asaluyeh governor Eskandar Pasalar condemned the US-Israeli attack as “political suicide” and declared the conflict had entered a full-scale economic war.
Brent crude rose to $108.60 per barrel — a nearly 5% gain — while European gas prices climbed more than 7.5% to above €55.50 per megawatt hour. Gulf oil exports had already been reduced by 60% from pre-war volumes due to sustained infrastructure damage and Iran’s Strait of Hormuz blockade. Iran had continued to export its own crude through the strait unimpeded while blocking Gulf neighbors’ shipments — a strategic imbalance that had given it significant economic leverage throughout the conflict.
Qatar’s government spokesperson warned that attacking energy infrastructure was a direct threat to global energy security and the welfare of millions. The potential reordering of global energy supply that Iran’s threatened strikes represented was a prospect that energy analysts and policymakers had long feared — and one that now appeared to be on the verge of becoming reality. The coming hours would determine whether the reordering would take place, and how dramatic its impact would be.